Undergraduate college enrollment has been steadily declining since peak enrollment in 2010. The decline has become even more pronounced in recent years after the COVID-19 pandemic. But what’s driving students to not enroll in college in the past 14 years? Birth rates, high costs, low value, and other factors are at play. We cover everything you need to know about this trend below.
What Do the Numbers Say?
According to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES):
- In 2010 enrollment was at an all-time high at just under 18.1 million students, including 7.84 million men and 10.25 million women.
- In 2021, that number dropped to 15.5 million, including 6.5 million men and 9 million women.
- That’s about a 1.5% drop in college enrollment per year, and the enrollment rates for men have dropped more in comparison to women’s enrollment rates.
Although the COVID-19 pandemic is often to blame for the drop, the decline in college enrollment had been ongoing prior to 2020. However, the pandemic did speed up the decline. There were over a million fewer students enrolling for college in 2021 compared to 2019.
The number of undergraduate degree earners has also dropped, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
- Between 2013 and 2021, the number of awarded bachelor’s degrees steadily increased.
- But, the number dropped 2.8% in the 2021-2022 academic year and a further 3.0% in 2022-2023.
- Associate’s degrees saw mixed results since 2013, but they largely remained steady until 2021 where they saw a 2.9% drop in 2021-2022 and a 7.3% drop in 2022-2023.
But, overall college enrollment could be on the uptick. The National Student Clearinghouse reports that undergraduate enrollment grew during the fall and spring 2024 semesters, especially at community colleges. Dual enrollment for high schoolers also saw a huge growth, which helped boost the 2024 spring enrollment numbers. In addition, the NCES predicts that enrollment will continue to trend upward over the next 7 years, but their predicted numbers won’t reach the peak we saw in 2010.
For 2031, they’re predicting 16.8 million students will enroll in college, compared to the 18.1 million that was seen in 2010.
However, a lower birth rate since 2007 could be throwing a wrench into those predictions.
Why is College Enrollment Declining?
Although many are quick to blame COVID-19 for the decline in college enrollment, that’s only part of the picture, especially since the decline started well before the pandemic. Here are a few reasons:
1. Lower Birth Rates
Lower birth rates aren’t to blame for declining college enrollment since 2010, but they could be to blame in the very near future. The birth rate has been steadily dropping since 2007 – between 2007 and 2022 it fell by almost 23%. Fewer children simply means there are fewer college students to enroll 18 years later.
The Great Recession is often blamed for the lower birth rate between 2007 and 2009. This drop in births will translate to fewer college enrollments, starting with 2025.
2. High Cost
College is expensive, and the high costs are causing students to turn away from college. Tuition cost has been generally increasing year over year alongside increasing cost of living expenses. The average cost of tuition and fees alone has increased by 141% over 20 years.
While colleges and universities are trying to help offset the cost with financial aid programs, the cost of attending a college has far outpaced inflation by an average of 104.3%. Tack on high interest rates and resulting debt, and it’s easy to understand why students are opting to take different routes than advancing their education.
This high cost of attendance has also led to lower confidence in the value of a college education.
3. Fewer International Students
International student enrollment rates are variable and can be sensitive to global affairs. The COVID-19 pandemic and restrictive immigration policies created hurdles international students needed to overcome if they wanted to study in the United States. However, while the international student population dropped between 2019-2020 and 2020-2021, it did see a massive increase in 2022–2023.
4. The Pandemic
Colleges tried to take steps to reduce the impact COVID-19 had on enrollment numbers and admission. They understood that the sudden shift to online learning, difficult finances, health concerns, and SAT/ACT challenges could affect students who were interested in going to college.
However, many students were faced with financial uncertainty as a result of the pandemic, which resulted in fewer enrollments. Others decided not to attend out of concern for their health, due to their issues or concerns with the online learning experience, or lack of information about how health or online learning concerns would be addressed at their top schools.
5. Previously Complicated FAFSA
For the 2024-2025 award year, the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) underwent some major changes. Prior to these changes, the FAFSA featured over 100 questions and could take a long time to complete, which deterred students and families from filling them out. In addition, FAFSA would often return with incomplete or incorrect information, and schools’ financial aid offer letters can be confusing. Some families were completely unaware that colleges use FAFSA to determine financial aid.
However, the FAFSA changes in 2023 brought about its own confusion. The application was fraught with delays and glitches. As a result, schools had to push back their timelines and deliver financial aid letters at a later date. Although they usually require students to decide if they’re attending in May, colleges understood that students couldn’t make this decision if they hadn’t received information about financial aid. In some cases, students were not required to submit their answers until July.
The misunderstandings regarding FAFSA and the actual cost of attendance resulted in many students believing that college was out of their price range. Add on the complexity, the glitches, and the delays, and it’s easy to see why completing the application was headache-inducing at times. These issues resulted in students just not completing the FAFSA and not going to college due to the high costs.
An Unpredictable Future for Higher Ed
Although some sources are expecting an uptick in college enrollment in the coming years, we could continue to see a drop due to the declining birth rates since 2007. There simply won’t be as many students as there were previously to attend college.
When you add in other factors, such as uncertainty with FAFSA, the pandemic, and the high cost of college, it paints a clear picture on why college attendance has dropped in recent years. However, high schools and colleges can take steps to better educate their students about the actual cost of college attendance, how to apply for scholarships, the FAFSA, and how to improve their college applications. These steps could help students understand what they need to do to make a college education a reality for their future.
Are you curious about enrollment numbers at your top college choices? College Raptor’s college profiles each show how many students are enrolled at a college or university. Use College Match to start exploring acceptance rates, enrollment statistics, majors, and more.
